Georgia votes in an election that could take it toward the EU or into Russia’s orbit
TBILISI, Georgia — Georgia, a small nation caught between the West and Russia, will hold parliamentary elections on October 2, 2023, in an election that could significantly impact its future direction. The contest is being viewed as a referendum on Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations, with the ruling Georgian Dream party, led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, facing a strong challenge from the United National Movement, led by former President Mikheil Saakashvili.
The election comes at a critical juncture for Georgia, as the country seeks to balance its desire for closer ties with Europe with its historical and economic ties with Russia. Georgia applied for EU membership in 2022, joining a wave of applications following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While the path to EU accession is lengthy, it holds the promise of deeper integration into the West and potential access to significant financial support.
However, Russia’s influence remains a potent factor. Moscow has long sought to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus region and views Georgia’s move toward the West as a threat. In 2008, Russia invaded Georgia in support of its separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, further complicating relations. Although a cease-fire agreement was reached, the regions remain de facto independent and Moscow retains a military presence there.
The upcoming election is widely seen as a battle between two visions for Georgia’s future: one anchored in Europe and the West, and the other looking toward Russia.
The ruling Georgian Dream party, which came to power in 2012 on a pro-European platform, has pursued closer ties with the West in recent years. However, it has also maintained a degree of neutrality in its relations with Russia. The party has been criticized for backsliding on democratic reforms and its increasing closeness with the Kremlin.
The United National Movement, led by Mikheil Saakashvili, who served as President from 2004 to 2013, is the main challenger to the ruling party. Saakashvili is a staunch supporter of EU integration and has repeatedly criticized the Georgian Dream for its ties with Russia and its backsliding on democracy.
The outcome of the election will have far-reaching implications for Georgia’s future trajectory. A decisive victory for the Georgian Dream could further strengthen its hand in dealing with Russia, potentially allowing it to play a balancing act between the West and Moscow. Conversely, a win for the United National Movement could pave the way for a more pro-Western foreign policy, with a stronger emphasis on closer integration with Europe and distancing from Russia.
Beyond the issue of EU membership, the election is also about domestic political reform. Georgia’s opposition parties have raised concerns about the ruling party’s alleged erosion of democracy and media freedom, citing a crackdown on dissent and accusations of voter intimidation. The election will serve as a test of Georgia’s democratic credentials and the strength of its institutions.
International observers will be closely watching the elections to assess the fairness and transparency of the process. The US and EU have called for free and fair elections, expressing concern over potential human rights violations and urging the government to uphold democratic principles.
The upcoming elections are crucial for Georgia’s future. The results will have a significant impact on its path towards EU membership and its ability to navigate its delicate relationship with Russia. The vote also carries the potential to reshape the country’s political landscape and influence the course of its future.
Factors that could influence the outcome of the election
Several factors could significantly influence the outcome of the Georgian parliamentary elections:
1. Voter Turnout:
Voter turnout is a crucial factor in any election. A high turnout could favor the opposition, while a low turnout could benefit the incumbent party. Voter fatigue or apathy towards the government could lead to low turnout, while significant public discontent could trigger high voter participation.
2. The Economic Situation:
Economic issues, such as inflation and unemployment, often play a significant role in elections. If voters perceive the government as handling the economy poorly, it could hurt the ruling party’s chances. Conversely, a strong economy could boost the incumbent’s prospects. The economic situation in Georgia has been relatively stable, but inflation has been a concern. Voter dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the economy could play a factor.
3. The Role of Russia:
Russia’s influence in Georgia is undeniable. Its presence in the breakaway regions and its continued political pressure on the government could influence voters. The ruling party’s perceived closeness to Russia could be a significant issue for voters, especially those favoring EU integration.
4. The Popularity of the Leaders:
The personal popularity of the main candidates, Bidzina Ivanishvili and Mikheil Saakashvili, will undoubtedly play a role. Ivanishvili, despite his wealth and influence, is not particularly popular, while Saakashvili’s reputation has been tarnished by allegations of corruption and authoritarianism. Their respective images and campaign strategies could have a major impact on voters’ choices.
5. International Pressure:
International organizations, such as the EU and the OSCE, are likely to exert pressure for free and fair elections. The international community’s scrutiny of the election process could impact voter turnout and perception of legitimacy.
6. The Media Landscape:
The media landscape in Georgia has been subject to increasing political control. Independent media outlets have been subjected to intimidation and censorship, creating an uneven playing field for the various parties. This could impact voters’ access to information and their perceptions of the political candidates.
7. The Potential for Election Fraud:
Allegations of election fraud have marred previous elections in Georgia. There are concerns that the ruling party could engage in manipulative tactics to influence the outcome. International observers and independent election monitors will be crucial in mitigating any such efforts and ensuring the integrity of the process.
Possible Scenarios and Their Implications:
Here are some potential scenarios and their likely implications for Georgia:
Scenario 1: Georgian Dream Wins a Clear Majority:
A decisive victory for the Georgian Dream would likely strengthen the government’s hand in negotiating with Russia and potentially solidify its path toward EU membership. However, it could also lead to further consolidation of power and restrictions on civil liberties. This scenario would raise concerns about the sustainability of democratic institutions and the trajectory of political freedoms.
Scenario 2: United National Movement Wins a Clear Majority:
A win for the United National Movement would signal a significant shift towards pro-Western policies and potentially hasten the path to EU membership. It could also lead to a resurgence of pro-democratic reforms and greater transparency in governance. However, it could also face challenges from Russia and potentially experience instability due to the potential for polarization within the country.
Scenario 3: A Hung Parliament:
A hung parliament, where no party secures a clear majority, could lead to prolonged political instability and a deadlock on key issues. It could result in protracted coalition negotiations and potentially impede Georgia’s progress on its reform agenda and EU integration. It might also create a power vacuum and allow for Russia to exert more influence in the country.
Scenario 4: High Voter Turnout and Increased Support for Smaller Parties:
If there is a significant rise in voter turnout and support for smaller parties that represent a broader range of political views, it could indicate a public demand for greater diversity in the political system and a desire for meaningful change. It could lead to a more dynamic and competitive political landscape and possibly foster greater political accountability. This outcome would require careful navigation of alliances and policy compromises to maintain political stability and deliver on promised reforms.
The Importance of the Elections
The upcoming elections in Georgia are a pivotal moment for the country’s future. The results will determine the direction of its foreign policy, its relationship with Russia, its path towards EU membership, and the state of its democratic institutions. International observers will be closely watching the elections for any signs of manipulation, voter intimidation, or infringement on democratic rights. The integrity of the process and the legitimacy of the outcome are crucial for Georgia’s democratic stability and its future prospects.
The upcoming elections represent a choice for Georgians between two competing visions of their future: one oriented towards closer ties with the West and integration into Europe, and the other more inclined to maintain ties with Russia. The outcome of these elections will have profound implications for the country’s trajectory, both internally and externally. The Georgian people will face a critical decision about their future direction, and the international community will be closely watching to see how this election shapes the course of this vital region.
